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A Quick Note On Florida's "Disappointing" Recruiting Class

Some fans are expressing disappointment with Florida's decision to focus on the defensive side of the ball in the class of 2012 despite the Gators' two years of offensive woes. UF signed 11 front seven recruits, and 14 of the 23 recruits were classified as defensive players. Considering UF returns 10 of 11 starters on that side of the ball, this seems a little excessive on its face.

However, there are a host of reasons that anyone thinking this class is somehow disappointing is crazy.

Star-divide

First and foremost, you sign what you can get, and Florida signed either the best or second-best defensive unit in the nation. If the defensive players are gravitating toward Will Muschamp, then he shouldn't shun them to throw his resources at a group of offensive players who don't really care about him. Recruiting works on 18-year-old psychology, which means you pretty much go with whatever works at the time and roll with it. Muschamp selling players on his defense worked out amazingly.

Second, defense is the side of the ball that matters in the SEC ... and that's actually selling it a bit short. Defense is the only thing that matters unless your team is harboring a Cam Newton. Only Newton could overcome the grip of defense that has dictated the best teams in the SEC over the last six years. Check the list of champions:

  • 2006: Florida, No. 2 SEC defense, No. 6 nationally
  • 2007: LSU, No. 1 SEC defense, No. 3 nationally
  • 2008: Florida, No. 3 SEC defense, No. 9 nationally (Alabama: T-No. 1 SEC, No. 3 nationally)
  • 2009: Alabama, No. 1 SEC defense, No. 2 nationally (Florida: No. 2 SEC, No. 4 nationally)
  • 2010: Auburn, No. 9 SEC defense, No. 60 nationally
  • 2011: Alabama, No. 1 SEC defense, No. 1 nationally (LSU: No. 2 SEC, No. 2 nationally)

I included other teams in the national title hunt in parenthesis. Another thing to note: All of those champions were at least in the top 10 nationally, with the exception of Auburn, which sat at mediocre No. 60.

Offensively, though, the champs were usually at or near the top of the conference, but only rarely at or near the top of the national rankings. The 2010 Auburn squad was the only SEC champion to be amongst the top 10 teams nationally in total offense).

  • 2006: Florida No. 2 SEC offense, No. 19 nationally
  • 2007: LSU No. 4 SEC offense, No. 26 nationally
  • 2008: Florida No. 1 SEC offense, No. 15 nationally
  • 2009: Alabama No. 4 SEC offense, No. 42 nationally
  • 2010: Auburn No. 1 SEC offense, No. 7 nationally
  • 2011: Alabama No. 2 SEC offense, No. 31 nationally

As you can see, the offenses range from excellent (2010 Auburn, 2008 Florida) to merely decent (2009 Alabama), while all but one SEC champion's defense was OMG AMAZING. The "defense wins championships" mantra rings most true in college football.

Moreover, the SEC has frequently faced a better-ranked offense in the title game, but only in 2007 (Ohio State) and 2010 (Oregon) did the non-SEC team field the better defense — and, in both cases, the SEC squad's defenses dominated the game. Muschamp may not have gone into recruiting with the idea that he was going to almost double up his offensive recruits with defensive guys, but because he went about it that way, he probably placed Florida in a more advantageous position for the future in the SEC.

And being in a great position in the SEC is about the same as being in a great position nationally.

Please be kind and use good grammar.

2 recs  |  168 comments

Comments

Alabama had 20th ranked scoring offense. They scored under 30 4 times this season, twice against LSU, once on the road at PSU (before the Joe Pa thing and with an unproven QB who they didn’t use at all), and at MSU. LSU had the 17th ranked scoring offense and scored under 30 only three times, twice to Bama and once @MSU. I’d say those are very good offenses who complemented their superb defenses. Just for fun, UF: 71st ranked scoring offense. We scored under 30 8 times, and I’m not going to list them because its depressing. My opinion is that our defense wasn’t far away from Bama and LSU. The major difference was their offenses sustained drives, kept there defenses fresh, and allowed them to dominate in the second half. Our offense, on the other hand, wore out our defense in the first half and teams like LSU and BAMA (with very good offenses) hung 40+ on us. Hence the need for offensive players. Which we didn’t get. So not thrilled with this class. Makes perfect sense to me.

How did we short change the offense?

I can understand wishing we had one more OL, and one more RB, but beyond that this was an awesome haul (Diggs is still up in the air). Two of the best TEs in the nationl. Two of the best OLs in the nation and one of our D line guys is probably going to move to the Oline. A bruising RB who will be able to run between the tackles, and get short yardage. A very good WR in Pittman, a project in Raph, and quite potentially Stefon Diggs.

Florida finished with a top 5 class, and added a ton of line depth, and people are complaining?? Sometimes I think we have the hardest fans to please in the country….SMH

I’m guessing I was the only Gator fan who watched our offense this year? Was everyone else covering their eyes because they didn’t want to see how bad it was? Pittman is being projected to move to safety. Someone posted yesterday that we lose three OL this year and we are replacing with 2 new OL. Based on what I saw on these boards all year, the consensus was that we were really thin on the OL, and now we are losing 1 (net). We were terrible at WR, but we only bring in one good one (assuming we get Diggs and Pittman moves to safety). We lose both of contributing RBs and replace them with only 1 rb. Our only good gets were TE (excellent), OL (two great recruits, but we needed 2 or 3 more to add depth) and QB (needed because of a pending transfer, I would assume). How is any of this good? Defense was good last year. We needed improvement on offense. For the record, I think our defensive recruiting was a major success, just think our offense needed addressing way more.

We didn't lose 3 starters on o-line

one of them olineman leaving is James Wilson … who only started and played in the bowl game … so take that for what it is worth. Dan Wegner is gone but so is Weis … so no bigie I don’t know who this supposed third lineman is but he is not a starter as well.

Didn’t say anything about starters but you’d have to ask Chekhov as it was his comment I was referring to. Maybe a practice squad guy?

Anyhow if we pull Diggs id feel pretty good about this class (like my opinion matters).

If Debose is allowed off the leash and JuJuan Story steps up, could be an interesting mix. I was a little concerned, but as Cards said the two TE commits is a real get. Run like hell and throw to the two stud tight ends? Seems to work for the Patriots, they’ve turned OchoCinco into a rumor.

I’m pretty sure Pease is used to doing more with less anyhow, should be right in his wheelhouse. We shall see.

What Ghost said, exactly. Debose is going to go off next year and Story should have a good year as well. Plus with Gilly and Jones running the ball and 25 TE’s to catch the ball, I think the Offense should be much improved. I wouldn’t let the fact there isn’t a bunch of offensive players discourage you. We are going to be a Pro-Style offense and as the Patriots have shown you don’t need an elite wideout to make it work. If you have 2 good TE’s(we will have about 8) and a decent run game(we will have a great run game) then it should be able to work okay. I know we don’t have Tom Brady behind center, but we do have 2 QB’s that were elite coming out of HS for a reason.

I think the class was really good. NSD was just “meh” because we left where we started pretty much. Are class didn’t really move up in the rankings, but it didn’t exactly drop either.

Cards is right. Gator Nation is impossible to please.

I'm thinking

We get a four tight end set

I was thinking the Pats offense, as well

Two TE sets, with Debose as the deep threat, and then rotate in our random collection of small fast guys to play the Welker position. We’ll just have to hope that Brissett or Driskel can throw the deep ball with enough consistency to keep the defense honest.

Defense does win championships. I think the Gators’ recruiting class was just fine. In fact, it was great. Any time you can get a Top 5 class, you’ve done good.

Would I have liked some offense in the class? Sure. But we still aren’t out of things with Diggs, and that changes a lot of things.

Adding Diggs would help for sure. Even if Muschamp added a few unknown OL I would be pretty happy. Need depth bad!

any other O linemen added would've red shirted

Florida’s lack of depth at line is largely a myth. The Gators were more inexperienced than thin to begin the season, then a lot of injuries happened. The Gators have 12 scholarship linemen returning and with Humphries on campus, 13 heading into Spring. Plus, Orr was recruited as a two-way player and may get switched over to offense. Add the incoming freshmen class arriving in the summer and the Gators will have between 14 and 17 available offensive linemen (depending on who is put at what position). The Gators needed talent, not depth, which is why Muschamp went after 5-star and high 4-star talent only.

Well, you’ve convinced me. Most compelling optimistic argument I’ve seen for our OL. Would have liked to see a few more O recruits come our way but maybe with a year under Pease’s belt he can pull some kids on offense. Now if we can just pick a QB…

We will pick a QB and with Pease being the OC it will be fair as he didn’t recruit either of the 2. I personally think we will see Driskel under center from here on out and Brissett as the backup, but we shall see.

Please tell me you guys are gonna pull in Diggs.

I don’t want to see him playing for osu. Not even sure how they can sign 26 kids on probation anyway.

He's going to OSU

at least that’s my prediction. Can’t win players like Diggs against Urban; it’s his favorite type of recruit.

I think this is how it’ll finish:

1: Florida
2: Maryland
3: Auburn
4: Ohio State

I know Urb’z is King Manipulation but Diggs has said all along he’s going to play in a pro-style offense.

I agree my only concern is if Diggs falls for all the camera flashes that seem to follow Urban in recruiting. I wonder how many times Urban has dropped “Percy Harvin” on the phone and in person with this kid haha. Let’s hope he avoids all the media attention that surrounds OSU come Feb.10… Go Gators!

That's not what I want to hear.

So if he wants to be in a pro-style why go to OSU?

Dang, I was literally just about to write this same post.

Great post. Hit the nail on the head.

We got a great class and as a result, we’ll be headed in the direction that won us two championships in the last decade.

We already have a solid RB commit, and ESPN lists 16 offensive playmaker offers (12 are from Florida and 2 from Georgia) for next year. Sure, we didn’t get the offensive class some people hoped for but we have the building blocks in place for the type of team that can win. This class is a win in my book.

Great post!

Absolutely agreed.

Understand

i think the article was well written, there are still holes that need to be filled, with that being said lets look at the guys on the roster that need to step up. at running back i think Mike Gillesse and Mack Brown are talented guys that can contribute to the running game along with the incoming Matt Jones and the walk on James. at wideout Dubose has shown his ability to stretch the field deep when given the chance, Frankie Hammond can be an effective slot reciever, and lets not forget about redshirt freshman Javon Story, our TE’s can be effective as well when given the oppurtunity too catch the ball. lets not forget that our struggles the last two years can’t be blamed on the players only but on the OC, addiziao was trying to turn Brantely into Tim and that failed, and Charlie Weiss forgot how to call plays and be creative. with all that being said our 2013 class has some keep commits already and only stands to get better.

I'm not sure if this was intended, but did you mean to mess up the names of everyone you mentioned?

Let’s see, by my count we’ve got mistakes on Gillislee, DeBose, Story, Addazio, Brantley, and Weis. If that wasn’t on purpose, it’s pretty impressive.

Don't think the B in Debose

is capitalized, Cards …

oh and gogators1 it’s JaJuan Story not Javon fwiw.

It isn’t. It’s Debose.

Ugh, it was a joke....get over yourself.
I noticed that too

but this time I held my proverbial tongue. I see “Dubose” and “Weiss” a lot (which is surprising given how high-profile those people are/were for the commenter’s own team). But seriously, that was a lot of hilariously bad spelling. Like, typed on a phone with hand held behind the back type of misspelling. My favorites were “Mike Gillesse” and Steve “addiziao.”

Welcome to Alligator Army, gogators1.

Good call on the preferred walk-on James Franklin. Any time a guy turns down offers (though small school offers) to walk-on to a program like that, just shows he wants to work hard. He’s going to make some people mad with his play … he’s like our own Rudy. Just on offense of course.

Oh, and don’t worry about or listen to the grammar Nazi’s that have shown up here. They might have all the soup, but we all know that real men (and women) eat stew. With the exceptions being chicken noodle and vegetable soups.

who's being a grammar nazi?

It was a joke, and actually pretty humorous…I mean 6 guys. That’s funny.

I’ll let you think about the answer to your question a little bit longer.

Hint: Look at the above posts.

to be fair, we were commenting on spelling, not grammer

and it was funny. Come on, you couldn’t mess up 6 names out of 8 if you tried.

Well, in the interest of full-disclosure, I too find it interesting how many people misspell Weis by adding a second “s.”

But also, when it comes to grammar Nazi’s … whether it is about spelling and/or grammar, the two are one in the same.

I’ll also add that I probably misspelled Nelson Agholor’s name probably 50 times. Just ask TheBullGator. I couldn’t get that name right to save my life. Luckily though, I only did it in e-mails. In public (like on here for example) I usually just typed “Nelson,” “NA” or just left it alone.

same here

Could never figure out where that damn “H” fell. For some reason though, I never get “Alajajian” wrong.

Yep. For me it was the “H” and every once in a while, it was another “O” that would mess me up.

As for Alajajian … I don’t even come close to that. Props to you.

Spelling Ja’Juan “Javon” isn’t a misspelling, guys. That’s just getting his name completely wrong. I chalk that up to just not following the football team much or, yeah…I don’t know. But as cards said, to get 6 names wrong is rather impressive and I am going to go ahead and add a 7th since Hammond is technically Hammond Jr.

His letter grade just went from a F- to a F———-

Oh He’z momma gun’ b mad az hellz. That’s what 7 of 8 looks like. Ugh.

poor fella

that’s a really big “minus”

Yeah, it happens. You get really big minuses when you screw up 7 out of 8 names on a team your supposedly a fan of.

Now if you told me to go name 8 players on say the Boston Bruins hockey team, then yeah I would easily screw up 7 of 8 because I don’t follow them at all. I just don’t see how you can not know the names correctly of the team your a fan of, especially a football team at that.

That's a toughy too

Dadgum Polynesian names can be tricky

Agree with positive view of class...

Yeah, I would have loved to see us grab Agholor (I’m not so sure about Diggs, whether he is coming, or that we should be that excited about such a potential “show-boat” ANYWAY), one of the two other RBs we were after earlier, and another top OL prospect or two (and we thought we had at least ONE more of those, too), but it’s important to take into account something that may well have played a part in all of that—something REALLY important in the way this Head Coach and his staff evaluate and go after talent: Coach Muschamp has made character, self-discipline and commitment to a common effort, all facets of what he calls the Florida Way and how well a player is likely to fit in with the TEAM, as important as that prospect’s general talent and specific skills. Unlike our last Coach, who paid only lip service to this idea and in truth specialized in blowing smoke up their butts in order to get them to sign (leaving a squad loaded with self-centered prima-donnas and 5-star losers when he moved on), Champ is upbeat and enthusiastic, but clear to the prospect and his family in what is expected in return.
This may cost us a signing sometimes (and well may have done so in more than one instance here), but honesty, sincerity and a 4-year full-ride (where most other major programs—and ours when Meyer was here—offer only a “year-by-year renewable” scholarship) is aimed at building a team of committed, hard-working teammates who will see things through together, and help to make us an ever stronger force to be reckoned with in the years ahead.

The problem with this analysis is that it assumes the 2012 class is a zero sum game between signing for offense and defense. Once again we undersigned, especially when accoutning for the EEs that can count toward last year. So we could have signed the same defensive recruits this year and STILL signed several more on the offensive side of the ball.

One problem

You seem to be assuming we choose not to add more offensive recruits we wanted. We didn’t, we just didn’t get all of the ones we wanted and choose not to recruit anyone we didn’t actually want.

I think it's relevant to point out...

that Florida also lost it’s offesnive coordinator late in the game here. It’s entirely feasible that Agholor falls our way if that doesn’t happen, and Diggs was also considered a lean when Weis was here. Don’t get me wrong; I’m pleased that Weis is gone, but it’s not easy on a staff to pull elite talent when the coordinator that recruited these guys bolts in Dec. Add into that equation the Mike Davis drama, and there are reasons why we were a little light on offense. I think the simple equation of “offense bad = should have more offensive recruits” is oversimplifying things a bit, and while I agree that we needed to sign more lineman, I don’t think that means we should have signed lineman for the sake of signing lineman. I’m really hopinh Diggs falls our way on the 10th, because that would make this offensive class look a lot better.

Did anybody watch the Giants last night?

Defense. Wins. Championships.

In every sport. The vast majority of the time.

one of the worst cliches in sports
Ehh, I think it's only true in football
No it's true in all sports where defense is involved.

Examples: basketball, make them miss more shots and you score consistently, win. Tennis, let the ball pass you more than it passes the other guy, lose. Hockey/lacrosse/soccer,ect., let them score more goals than you, lose. Baseball, make slot of errors, don’t catch easy fly balls, don’t pitch well, lose. Defense always wins.

If defense always won, the best defenses would always win and they don't.

The best defenes in the NFL this year by yardage were in order:
1. Steelers
2. Texans
3. Ravens
4. 49ers
5. Jets
6. Jags
7. Bengals
8. Eagles
9. Seahawks
10. Browns….
27. NY Giants
31. NE Patriots

The fact is, only half of the top 10 even made the playoffs, and the 27th and 31st ranked teams made the superbowl. What’s even better is that 6 of the bottom 10 made the playoffs…

Patriots
Giants
Broncos
Packers
Saints
Lions.

So once again, how did defense win this championship?

add into that the World Series this year

featured arguebly the top offensive teams from each league (or perhaps the 2nd best in the Cards case), and again…how did defense win that championship?

The defense wins championships cliche

is one that is repeated over and over, and simply isn’t true. Good teams win championships, and usually that requires a good defense, after all that’s half of the game, but there are plenty of examples of average or even somewhat poor defensive teams winning titles…

Like most things, it obviously isn’t going to be true 100% of time. But look at my favorite teams for example:

The Cleveland Indians in 1995 had the best offense in baseball. In the World Series however, they matched up with the Braves (who had one of the best pitching staffs in baseball history) and lost in 6 games. Great pitching in baseball is without question considered defense.

The St. Louis Blues in hockey, had arguably the best 1-2 punch in defensive history in Chris Pronger and Al MacInnis, but their lack of a goaltender (Brathwaite and Roman Turek … FREAKING REALLY!!!) cost them a championship. Especially the year in which they won the Presidents trophy.

The Boston Celtics of the last half decade, won a championship using defense as their main weapon. And if Perkins doesn’t blow out his knee in game 6 a couple of years ago, they win another one. And last year if he isn’t traded, they more than likely win another one. Why? Because he was the heart and soul of their defense.

The Gators won two national championships with great defense. In 2007, the year they didn’t win it all … was it the offense or defense that cost them? It was the defense.

Sure it doesn’t hold true every time, but more often than not … you can count on it.

you're evidence is all anecdotal

and while the 2006 Florida team probably won more with defense, they did post 41 in the the title…and the 2008 team was an exceptional offensive squad. In fact that game was played between what were (IMO) the two best offensive teams in the nation that year.

All the evidence in this thread has been anecdotal.

But just for giggles, what was the final score of that national championship game? And would you say it was more of an offensive game or defensive game?

The complete saying is “Offense wins games, defense wins championships” …

And as you know, that means: offense will win you the games to get to the championship game, while defense will win the championship for you.

Which was exactly how 2008 played out.

Look at the Gators two championship appearances in the 90’s.

What cost the Gators in 1995 (technically 1996, but yeah) against Nebraska? Defense.

What won it for the Gators in 1996 (well, 97, but still) against FSU? Defense, with a lot of offense to make the blow-out. Holding FSU to 20 points was impressive.

Just look at the Noles offense that year. They scored over 50 twice and averaged just over 37 points per game. The Gators held them to 20.

If Florida State hits their average, the Gators don’t score 52 .. you know, because of time, ball possession and what not.

I’ll help you out with the answer to the question.

The Gators and Sooners (who were like the top two scoring offenses) played a defensive game and the Gators won 24-14.

“Offense wins games, defense wins championships”

That season and final game, was that quote, the cliche as you say … summed up perfectly.

The Gators had a good defense last year and had their worst season in 30 years???

The Gators also had pretty good offenses those two years as well

Again, y’all aren’t focusing on the issue. Nowhere did I say that it holds true every single time.

So let me get this straight

You cite specific examples. This means defense wins championships

We cite specific examples. It doesn’t mean anything.

Ok, good arguing with you. I think I’ll pass

I never said that. All I said is that all the evidence posted has been anecdotal.

But I will say that the saying just didn’t appear for the hell of it.

Exactly. Well said.

Stupid Golf

needs Defense!

Didn't the Mavericks just win the title over the Heat?

The Heat were a significantly better defensive team, especially when reduced to playoff rosters. The Mavericks were above average only.

Only three times did a team in that finals score over 100 points. Dallas did it twice and Miami did it once.

Can we agree that scoring 100 points in a NBA game is considered the cut-off point for a good offensive game?

If so, then you can say that defense won the Mavs the championship. Because they played the better defense when it mattered most.

Not really

You have to adjust for pace and the team’s use of the 3 point shot. A good shooting team that plays slow (think Celtics, before their fall) would score 100 points on a really good night. The Nuggets would consider that a very awful game.

I also wouldn’t say defense won the championship either. The middle two games were slugfests, but the two closing games were dictated by lights out shooting (especially by the Mavericks).

And neither team scored over 90 points in those middle games.

Stupid Solitaire

Needs Defense!

Stupid Spelling Bee

Needs Defense!

Stupid Track & Field

Needs Defense!

There defense in track. At least in the distance running events.

...

what defense?

In distance events, say the one-mile. Racers block you, cut in front of you, draft, not go wide … there are plenty of things.

only works if the defender can keep up

you have to be as fast as someone in order to block them in racing, or they’ll just push you til you wear out.

Oh I know. I ran track and cross country all through HS and a little bit in college.

But the point is, there is defense. Obviously it doesn’t apply to sprints and the field events, but in distance running, it’s all over the place.

Ok

Except distance running. I never did track, just worked out with them during Spring and Summer football training.

Ohhhh, you were one of those guys. Haha. Yeah, during cross country in HS we used to do our warm-up laps around the track while the football players were doing their thing.

We used to yell at them and they’d yell back. But during track season, half the football team would compete and/or workout with us.

Stupid Olympic Swimming

Needs Defense!

Stupid Darts!

Needs Defense!

Ummmm...the Giants defense was one of the worst in the NFL

and the Pats was even worse than that so I think you could say the defense certainly doesn’t win championships.

It seems that good quarterbacks win championships

Once again, y’all aren’t focusing on the issue. Nowhere did I say that it holds true every single time.

To act like it holds true any more than half the time is ridiculous

Since nobody is going to go sport-by-sport and research the last fifty years … we’re probably going to have to just agree to disagree.

Some on here say defense wins championships, others don’t. That’s probably as far as we’re ever going to get.

Good teams win championships

That’s all I will agree to

http://www.freakonomics.com/2012/01/20/does-defense-really-win-championships/

Some selective quotes:

[In the Super Bowl]….the better defensive team — measured by points allowed that season— has won 29 times. The better offensive team won 25 times.
It’s a slight edge for defense, but it’s a pretty close call and not different from random chance. The favorite statistic of the "defense wins championships" proponents is that the top-ranked defense during the regular season has won 15 Super Bowls, whereas the top-ranked offense has won only 8.
There have been 427 NFL playoff games over the last 45 seasons. The better defensive teams have won 58 percent of them. The better offensive teams have won 62 percent of the time. (Again, the winning team is sometimes better both offensively and defensively, which explains why the total exceeds 100 percent.)

But the thing with that is, we’re talking about the Championship game, when it comes to defense. Again, offense wins games (read: to get you there), defense wins championships (read: wins the big game).

What about when a great offense faces a great defense? Twenty-seven Super Bowls have pitted a top 5 offense against a top 5 defense. The best offensive team won 13, and the best defensive team won 14.

Advantage, albeit a small one, to the defense.

Throughout the article, which is obviously geared toward proving it wrong, they do a good job of providing stats from both sides.

The best one that proves it from the offensive side of things is this:

In almost 10,000 regular season games, the better defensive team has won 66.5 percent of the time compared with 67.4 percent of the time for the better offensive team.

But again, nobody is disputing that offense wins you games. That’s the first part of the whole equation.

offense wins you games

and apparently offense will also win you a title about 50% of the time, but somehow that still means that defense wins championship? Come on Fla, you can’t possibly see those statistics and think that the “defense wins championships” cliche hold true…

It’s slightly more than 50% of the time in favor of the defense. Which, I’ll admit, I said it was greater, so I stand corrected on that.

But to say that it’s 50-50, is obviously false. At the end of the day, defense wins more than offense. So the saying, while it is a slight advantage, is true.

let me see if I get this straight...

the saying is that defense wins championships, but the evidence suggests that in reality defense wins championships about half of the time, so….the statement is wrong.

You’re generalizing statistics. I’m not a math person at all, I mean, I’m pathetic at math. But I don’t think you can generalize statistics.

It’s more than half the time. Therefore it is true. Barely.

winning is winning....

winning isn’t losing almost half of the time.

the statement should be

defense wins championships about half of the time, not defense wins championships, because in fact defense very often loses championships.

No. If we were going to be correct…the statement should be: Since you like to generalize.

“Defense wins championships more than half the time.”

When you say “about half the time” it alludes to be less. Or better yet, slightly less.

Which as proven by the article, is wrong.

So then the defense wins championships crowd

is pointing to a 51%-49% advantage? That’s what this ridiculous cliche is based on? That’s what you’re going with?

If you get 15-8 and 14-13 all in favor of the defense, sure.

It’s still greater than 50%, which is the whole point of this, right?

No, it isn't the point

The statement isn’t defense wins championships barely more than offense….the statement is that defense wins. Period. Wins. Not loses almost half the time.

But that’s how all sayings are.

“Money doesn’t buy happiness” – which isn’t always true.

“There never was a good war or a bad peace.” – which isn’t always true.

“Everything is funny as long as it is happening to somebody else. " which … okay, yeah .. that one is always true.

But still, that’s how all sayings are. Even saying “the sky is blue” or the grass is green" isn’t true exactly 100% of the time. As I said from the beginning, nobody is staying that it is true all the time.

but it isn't just not true all of the time

it’s not true almost exactly as much as it is.

Which has been noted.

he did ask for the last 50 years....

you’ve only provided the last 45…for shame

It's a cliche that got started

and continues despite numerous examples to the contrary.

But continues because of numerous examples that prove it correct. Like the ones in the main post for example.

so, by citing some specific examples that back up your point

you think that negates the hard eveidence providede in the freakonomics article?

Y’all aren’t seeing it are you? Okay, look at it from my side for a second. All y’all are doing is citing specific examples that back up your point. It’s the same thing I’m doing.

The freakonomics article overall has a theme of a slight advantage for the defense. Though it is a small one.

Also, you don’t think they left something out when writing the article which was geared toward one side?

how is taking every game ever played citing specific examples?

the article looks at literally every game. Now even though there is no evidence to the contrary provided, you’re gonna go with a “there probably is, but the article didn’t say it” as a defense….come on man, just give this one up.

Why should I have to give anything up when it talks about a slight advantage to the defense in Super Bowls?

For like the 10th time…

Offense wins games (to get you there), defense wins championships (wins the big game).

THERE IS NOTHING IN THE ARTICLE THAT POINTS TO ANYTHING TO THE CONTRARY OF THE STATEMENT.

It says there is a slight advantage to the defense.

Did you read it?

OMG

the statement defense wins championships implies that the better defensive team will win in the championship. Can we agree on that? The reality is that the better defensive team loses almost as much as it wins. Do you honestly believe that the defense wins championships crowd is pointing to a miniscule percentage when they make that claim. Bro, you’re backpeddling like crazy, your initial statement was “In every sport. The vast majority of the time.” You’re now gonna tell me that by vast majority, you meant 51%?

If you’re reading my comments, I said “I stand corrected” on the vast majority comment. I admitted I was wrong there. Like I said, I thought it would be higher than that.

it's barely higher than half...

There is literally one game. One single game that pushes it slightly in the defenses favor. There is no way that this entire cliche can really rest on the results of a single game.

Many things are decided by one game or one point.

You can look at the 29 to 25 or the 15 to 8 stats that are in favor of the defense if it makes you feel any better.

But yes, as I said, I didn’t think it was that close either.

I'll take that....and happpily end this discussion

Good teams win championships.

Now that has probably happened every time. ;-)

I just had this conversation

with an Alabama fan, and he actually used some of your examples…the moral of the story; don’t be like an Alabama fan, and guess what?

John Elway and Cal Ripken are overrated…yeah I said it

That’s the closest I’ll be to agreeing with an Alabama fan I guess.

That's what i'm talking about.
Don't really know baseball enough to say anything on Ripken

Elway in his prime would be like 7th best QB today, maybe. Brady, Rodgers, and Brees are way out of Elway’s league. Peyton Manning is too, if he can still play. Roethlisberger is a lot better, but he plays in a much less QB-reliant system (still the best game manager counts for something). Eli’s more on Elway’s level, but Eli is way more clutch, so I think that matters enough to knock Elway down another notch.

After that, you get into a collection of guys who are probably better statistically, but can’t seem to put it together to win (Romo and Rivers), so I’ll put Elway just above those guys.

I think that's fair

For some reason, Matt Ryan comes to mind when thinking of a modern day Elway

You guys should work for ESPN. You are so “in-the-now”.

What’s next? Michael Jordan is the 7th best Shooting Guard in the NBA today, maybe?

I mean, after all, the NBA is the best it’s ever been and the Defense is uber-amazing. I guess that’s why Lebron can’t win a ring…the NBA is to hardcore. L. O. L.

No, Jordan's PER/PPG/every other stat

suggest that by pure numbers he’d only be behind LeBron James. Based on his winning-ness, he’d be the best in the league.

Elway wasn’t Jordan.

I didn't limit that to shooting guard, obviously
So, looking at Elway's numbers

and seeing that they were pretty mediocre compared to even those he played with, is being “in the now”. Apparently math and numbers is some new fangled ESPN creation, that clearly lacks historical perspective…good to know

Atleast your not a smart-ass that is extremely opinionated but when someone disagrees with your opinion you get all butt-hurt.

I am thankful for that...

at least.

Jordan in my book is the 4th or 5th best player ever. And that’s on the high side.

That's crazy

care to share your top 5?

Give me: Bird, Chamberlin, Russell and Magic.

Though if I were to create the perfect line-up…

PG: Magic
SG: Jordan
SF: Bird
PF: Chamberlin
C: Russell

Why Russell at C and not Chamberlin? Defense.

I got a team to give you a run

How about

PG: Gary Payton
SG: Kobe Bryant (not a fan of his but I recognize the talent)
SF: LeBron James
PF: Tim Duncan
C: Hakeem Olajuwon (Shaq was almost my choice here as well, but Hakeem is more complete)

I think with both teams in their prime, your team (the consensus top 5 all time) would only beat this team 55% of the time, better than half but not by much.

I really like your pick of Hakeem. Over guys like Abdul-Jabar, Shaq (as you said) and others.

Great pick. I’d have done the same.

Give me Hakeem and Tim Duncan

with Chris Paul at point, and I could put any two All-Star wings out there from any era and probably win about 2/3 of the time. Your team wouldn’t be able to defend the pick and roll or score inside.

Who cares about scoring inside?

Bird is the best shooter in NBA history. Jordan, while not great, was a decent shooter…

Magic would take Paul to school all day long.

I can see Russel and Wilt

but I don’t think Bird and Magic top Jordan. It’s kind of tough to know, since both of their careers were cut shorter than they should’ve been, but growing up watching Jordan, I have a hard time accepting anyone as better.

Fla’s team would DESTROY EC’s any day of the week. I could see Lebron over Bird based on athletic ability but if I was putting a team together to win a championship it would be Bird over Lebron any day.

And Chris Paul over Magic Johnson? Seriously? And Tim Duncan over Wilt? Uhhhhhh. Come on guys.

That’s the great thing about Bird. He had more “care” than 99.9% of the rest of the basketball players who have ever played in the NBA.

His vertical jump was rough six-inches, he was slower than my 89 year old Grandmother and was about as athletic as plywood.

But he was there out hustling ever single player, could pass the ball better than anybody else in his generation, would somehow create his own shot….the list just goes on and on.

Magic Johnson once said:

“When I played, Larry Bird was the only one I feared. A lot of black guys always ask me, could Larry Bird really play that good?. I’d tell them, Larry Bird was so good, it was frightening.”

Exactly. Well said. And like I said if we are having an athletic ability competition, I would take anyone before Larry Bird. But if we are talking about will to win, then there is only one or two players in the history of the NBA I am taking before him, and the one guy is obvious.

LeQueen, right? ;-)

Haha, no chance. Well, if the NBA shortened its regular season to 20 games, removed the 4th quarter & playoffs and the only way you were allowed to score is by driving to the basket, then yeah LeQueen.

I would’ve loved to see Lebron play in the Jordan era and to see what happened when he drove to the basket back then.

“Ewing….with the CLOSELINE”

Or in the 80’s.

Teams that win care about establishing the post

why do you think the Heat are beatable? They have the best two wings in basketball, other than Kevin Durant. However, Joel Anthony is the single worst starting center in the NBA, and Bosh is really just a tall wing since he can’t play low post. Teams that can get inside on Miami pick up easy points, and pressure the Heat into foul trouble.

And yeah, Paul would give up shots to Magic, but Magic could never contain Paul. CP3 is a better shooter, he’s faster, and he’s tied with Stockton for best passer in NBA history. He’d more than make up for his defensive liability through 3 point shooting and assists. Steve Nash could do the same, but even though he’d be the best shooter on the floor in this hypothetical game, he’s much more of defensive liability.

I guess we’ll agree to disagree on the Magic-Paul thing.

But, Jordan never had a dominant big-man either, and he seemed to manage just fine 6 different times. He didn’t even have a Bosh, he had a Grant/Rodman.

NYG had the 6th worst defense in the NFL

Just saying…

I think you're missing the point

Defense wins championships, so if you would please refrain from using numbers and statistics it would be greatly appreciated.

Were the Giants the 6th worst defense

during the run they just went on?
If you’re telling me the defense I just saw tear through some of the better teams in the league is 6th worst in the NFL, then you’re crazy. That rating was given to them by their entire season’s work. If you follow pro sports, you know that the better team doesn’t always win, it’s who get the hottest at the right time. The Giants D shut out Atlanta, held Green Bay to 20 (in the Frozen Tundra), and held the Pats to 17. 6th worst in the league my ass.

Oh..

and name me 26 defenses you’d take over the Giants… lol.

the numbers are the numbers

and for the record, the Giants were still statistically speaking the better team in this game either way. I don’t think that anyone is denying that the GIants have a very good defense, at least in the playoffs, but does that little bit of anecdotal evidence prove that defense wins championships? Not really.

You guys should make more research before talking shit

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2011/opp.htm

Nothing else to add.

Sorry for this reply here, Cards

It was supposed to be for Mr.No-Research-Nole above.

Lol

says the guy using Total defense and scoring defense as his “research.”

I agree with you...
But the numbers are misleading.

And that’s an understatement.
Obviously, one game, or even one season, doesn’t prove the saying that has been going on for decades right, but for the debate to come to an agreement there has to be a criteria on what exactly a defense has to do to be considered as the main factor for winning the championship. In fact, I’m not even sure if I can agree with the statement that defense wins championships, but saying the Giants had the 20-somethin best D in the league isn’t a legit stat.

You guys should make more research before talking shit

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2011/opp.htm

Nothing else to add.

This didn't answer anything I asked.

Again, name me even 20 defenses you’d take over the Giants.
My point remains that the Giants (especially the defense) caught fire during the playoffs, you know, the period during the season where championships are won.
The #25 or whatever ranking they’re given is generated over the course of the season. Over the entire season, they weren’t an impressive defense, but they turned it on late in the season and looked like an elite defense, something the stats you provided don’t take into account.

I’m going to have to agree with the Nole on this one. The regular season is almost meaningless. You can lose 6-8 games in the regular season and still win a Title. I can’t name even 5 defenses I would take over the Giants defense.

If you lose 6-8 in the reg season

Then you can’t call your own D as good!

Unless it did excatly what the Giants D

did throughout the playsoffs and shutdown the All amazing Tom Brady and win the superbowl.

Exactly.

Defense wins championships.

And …. There it is.

Yup, and even if it isn’t true 100% of the time, it’s still true a lot more then it isn’t true.

Take for instance 2008 season. Everyone was saying how great Oklahoma’s offense was and how it was the greatest or one of the greatest ever. Well, it was, until…..it played an elite defense. Then what happened? 14 points and a loss. Why? Because Defense wins championships.

And this season. What would’ve happened if Mike Gundy got his wish and Oklahoma State would’ve faced LSU or Alabama? They would’ve lost. Even tho Mike Gundy said “we’ve already seen LSU-Alabama we haven’t seen a great offense vs a great defense”, we actually had. 2008.

Yup.

numbers must really be confusing

How in the world does 51%= true a lot more than it isn’t true.
/mind blown

Again, just to end the conversation, we agreed to use those numbers, while ignoring the ones that support it even more.

If you can’t grasp that by now, throughout this conversation, I can’t help you.

Read through it. You’ll see.

right

I’m the one who’s ignoring the evidence contrary to a belief.

Wow

Didn’t think that comment I made would spark such a debate. I job here is done. Defense.

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